Our Theory of Change for GFI Livestock emissions represent 11-17% of global emissions and 42-65% of food system emissions.3 Importantly, energy use represents a very low share of these emissions; most food system emissions instead come from land use change, enteric methane, and manure management.4 Therefore, we cannot expect progress in other parts of the economy, such as power grid decarbonization, to lead to material reductions in livestock emissions. The climate impact of livestock farming is expected to increase as the world’s population grows and as low-income countries become wealthier and consume more animal products.5
We think reducing livestock production could be an important lever for driving down emissions and could potentially free up some land for carbon sequestration.6 Our Food System Emissions report explains that alt proteins could be a promising intervention for lowering meat consumption. We constructed a theory of change that reflects our impression of how GFI’s activities can reduce food system emissions (Figure 1). This theory of change focuses on making alt proteins more taste- and price-competitive with conventional meat by supporting alt protein R&D, securing public funding for R&D, and ensuring alt proteins have a path to market.7 We believe this approach could help displace some demand for conventional meat and eventually reduce livestock production and its associated emissions. We examine the evidence for how well GFI executes its inputs in the sections below.
Figure 1: Theory of change diagram for GFISupporting Alt Protein R&D Since 2019, GFI has awarded 118 grants across 21 countries to support open-access research, totaling over $21 million (USD).8 Some of its grant funding has also catalyzed follow-on government funding. From 2019 to 2022, of its grantees that both received initial support and follow-on government funding, an initial $1.8 million from GFI catalyzed $16.9 million in subsequent government support.9 Additionally, GFI’s Alt Protein Project has established student groups in 81 universities.10 GFI's grants and commissioned research aim to make knowledge about alt proteins freely accessible to everyone, especially when it might otherwise be held as private intellectual property.
According to GFI, it engaged in policy efforts, including lobbying, in 2021 and 2022 to encourage the establishment of an interagency working group that would coordinate and support alt protein R&D throughout the federal US government.11 The US House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee directed the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to establish this interagency working group in its FY23 report.12 The committee gave OSTP the same direction again in FY24 appropriations, signaling to the White House the strength of Congress' will. This could streamline research and help establish alt proteins as a US research priority. Also, in 2024, GFI’s work contributed to the establishment of alt proteins as one of the seven key themes for CASA-Bio , a federal initiative to advance R&D for the bioeconomy. GFI is collaborating on the design of this initiative’s five-year R&D roadmap for alt proteins.13
In 2023, GFI increased its efforts to promote alt proteins as a climate solution worldwide. For example, they collaborated with a coalition of organizations, including major climate funders and nonprofits, with the common objective of highlighting the significance of alt proteins as a climate solution in international discussions. We think these activities are indicative of GFI’s convening power, which we also believe strengthens policy advocacy. We have also heard of the direct influence that GFI has had in encouraging at least one climate nonprofit to start an alt protein workstream.
In 2024, GFI expanded its research footprint by partnering with the Bezos Earth Fund . GFI served as the strategic partner for the fund, scoping and selecting global centers of alternative protein science and innovation. GFI provided 14 universities with funding to draft proposals for alt protein research centers. Of these universities, GFI led a process that ended with the Bezos Earth Fund choosing three research centers to seed with $30 million each.14 GFI’s policy team assisted several of the remaining applicants in applying for government funding to open their centers.
Securing Public Funding for Alt Protein R&D GFI’s advocacy has helped increase public funding for alt protein R&D, which reached $523 million in 2023.15 We think these advocacy wins are likely shared between GFI and many other organizations, although we think GFI has been a key driver and convener. GFI has also influenced governments to set alt proteins as priorities in national strategies.16 According to GFI, the Israeli government will use GFI Israel’s Alternative Proteins National Policy Plan as a roadmap for its national foodtech policy plan. In 2024, GFI was also part of the Indian Science Ministry’s sectorial committee on smart proteins, whose proposals led to alt protein being a key focus area for the government's new national Bioeconomy Policy .17
To the best of our knowledge, GFI was the only nonprofit organization that played a role in the states of California and Illinois allocating $5 million each to alt protein research in 2022 and 2024 respectively.18 It was also among the two nonprofit organizations that assisted with the $5.5 million allocated in the federal budget to the US Department of Agriculture for alt protein research.19
In the US, GFI has good working relationships with partners across the executive and legislative branches of the government, which probably increases the likelihood of its success. We also note that GFI’s former Chief of Staff now works as the Deputy Under Secretary for the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Research, Education, and Economics mission area, which includes the Office of the Chief Scientist and key USDA research funding agencies.20
Ensuring a Path to Market for Alt Proteins Policymakers in various countries have introduced bills restricting alt protein producers from labeling their products with meat and dairy terms, protecting the interests of livestock producers and potentially reducing alt proteins’ competitiveness. We believe that GFI’s work at the legislative, executive, and judicial levels has helped defeat some of these label laws in the EU and US.21 GFI’s legal wins in 2023 and 2022 include the narrowing of a Louisiana state law prohibiting companies from using meat-related terms on alt proteins and a ruling declaring a similar Arkansas state law as unconstitutional.22
We think GFI has also helped clarify the pathway of cultivated meat to market. For example, GFI directly advocated for USDA and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to use standard processes applicable to conventional meat products in the existing regulatory system. GFI also promoted the establishment of fair labeling requirements when the agencies were building their regulation strategy for cultivated meat.23 We think using an existing regulatory framework has helped cultivated meat come to market sooner and could help boost consumer confidence, while giving USDA authority over labeling could help guard against delayed approval due to state-level labeling requirements.24 In November 2022, GFI was also featured in substantial media coverage related to the US FDA’s first-ever approval of cultivated meat. We think this media coverage is indicative of the regulatory expertise and advocacy that GFI has brought to the alt protein sector.25 According to GFI, it also played a substantial role in developing Brazil’s regulatory frameworks for cultivated meat and fermentation-derived alt proteins, which were published in 2023.26
GFI’s strategic support was acknowledged by JBS—the largest protein company in the world—when JBS announced its $100 million commitment to cultivated meat.27 In addition to spurring innovation, this commitment could expand cultivated meat production because JBS can produce and distribute more goods at scale than smaller competitors can. Additionally, we think building an alliance with the largest meat producer in the world could decrease industry opposition or concern about the progress of alt proteins.
In 2024, the Islamic Council of Singapore made the first-ever authoritative decision that cultivated meat can be halal.28 According to GFI, this came after over a year of deliberation, during which GFI provided numerous inputs.29 The ruling was announced at an invite-only conference featuring a GFI speaker.30 We think this is indicative of GFI’s role as a trusted contributor to the council’s decision.
Examining the Assumptions Behind GFI’s Theory of Change Below, we discuss and evaluate assumptions related to the GFI theory of change, meaning GFI’s mission of helping alt proteins reach taste and cost parity with conventional meat, and our take on how its mission could reduce emissions. For each of the assumptions, we rank whether we have low , medium , or high certainty about the assumption.31 Importantly, a number of the stages of the theory of change are not amenable to easy measurement or quantification or are expected to occur in the future but have not occurred as of yet. For each assumption, we assess whether the best available evidence, primary or secondary, suggests whether the assumption will plausibly hold.
1. Directly substituting some alt proteins for their conventional meat counterpart would substantially reduce GHG emissions. (high certainty)
Substituting some conventional meat with alt proteins may reduce emissions by lowering direct emissions from livestock farming and curbing emissions from land use change.32 Indeed, the highest-emitting plant-based meat has a carbon footprint at least half that of beef, while the average footprint for plant-based meats is lower than the average for both chicken and pork (Figure 2 ).33
Figure 2: Emissions for meat and alternatives.[34]However, there is uncertainty about whether cultivated meat production will increase or decrease warming. Namely, cultivated meat production is energy-intensive, and if it is powered by fossil energy sources, it would lead to long-lived CO2 emissions that could compare unfavorably against ruminants’ short-lived methane emissions over the long term.35 We are optimistic about cultivated meat’s ability to reduce emissions because of its potential for freeing up land. Still, it will be important to decarbonize cultivated meat production to reduce its carbon impact.
Because alt protein production is still in its early stages, it is impossible to predict with certainty what its future production and GHG emissions will look like. However, it seems highly likely that investing in alt protein R&D will shift alt protein improvements and GHG reductions forward in time relative to the counterfactual. We will continue to monitor developments in alt protein production and will update our thinking with new information.
2. Making alt proteins more taste- and price-competitive with conventional proteins will displace some demand for conventional proteins. (medium certainty)
Studies have found that taste and price are the two main drivers of consumer food choices, adding that nutrition and texture were also important factors.36 Therefore, we think improving alt proteins so they are similar to conventional meat in price and taste will likely lead to increased demand. We think the historical growth of the alt protein market from $2.2 billion in 2019 to $15 billion in 2023 was plausibly in large part due to such improvements but could also be in part because they were at a high point of a hype cycle, and consumers were interested in their novelty.37 Further growth is projected, with projected sales reaching $36 billion in 2034, signaling confidence in the ability of alt protein demand to grow.38
We think alt proteins still have a wide scope for improvement and that more R&D support increases the likelihood that alt proteins will shift diets and livestock production in the future. We have not been overly worried about the decline in US retail plant-based meat sales in 2022 because we think these products can further improve.39 Our concern would grow if we saw a reduction in research funding for alt proteins, which might indicate a slowdown in innovation. However, that does not appear to be happening at the moment, and we note that GFI’s top global goal is to accelerate research focused on closing the price and taste gap.
There is empirical evidence to show that price can greatly influence the demand for alt proteins in the right contexts. When the German supermarket Lidl brought its plant-based products to price parity with animal-origin products, sales of the plant-based products increased by over 30%.40 We think Europe is especially open to adopting plant-based products, with meat consumption per capita now decreasing in some European countries, so we are uncertain if this result is replicable globally.41
According to one report, improvements to the taste and price of alt proteins would currently be insufficient to lead to significant meat reduction.42 Our understanding is that outside of taste and price, various social and cultural dynamics also influence the number of people open to trying alt proteins.43 Examples include trends of alt proteins being perceived as unnatural, right-wing opposition to cultivated meat in the US, and meat as a symbol of social status, which can all lead to fewer people being open to eating alt proteins. Alongside taste and price improvements, supportive regulation, positive health perceptions, and a favorable social environment have also been cited as factors needed for alt proteins to be able to obtain a large market share.44
We think there are gaps in understanding related to how all of these factors affect consumer protein choices. GFI’s work on consumer insights addresses some of these gaps, including consumer motivations for trying alt proteins, how alt protein adoption can be accelerated, and consumer perceptions of alt proteins.45 However, further gaps still affect our certainty of alt proteins’ ability to displace meat. Examples include studies measuring conventional meat displacement as a result of increased alt protein sales, comparing alt proteins to other methods of reducing meat consumption, and conducting taste tests to track improvements in alt proteins.46
3. Demand for alt proteins will lower livestock production. (high certainty)
Global meat consumption will likely increase in the future, and it is unclear to us how much alt proteins will affect this trajectory.47 Our take is that increased alt protein production will likely lower livestock production because (a) market friction can make it hard and expensive to export meat around the world, and (b) it is unlikely that an individual’s decreased meat consumption would cause an equivalent increase in meat consumption elsewhere. However, we have some concerns that alt proteins will not reduce demand for livestock products but will instead make demand for conventional meat more responsive to changes in price. If this is the case, people would purchase more conventional meat when it is cheap and less when it is expensive, and reducing livestock production at equilibrium would require additional measures (e.g., education and advocacy to reduce demand, regulation, and policies to increase cost). Thus far, we are only familiar with one model that estimates the impact of plant-based meat on cattle production. Lusk et al. (2022) estimate every 10% reduction in cost for plant-based ground beef alternatives decreases US cattle production by 0.15%.48 This reduces emissions by about 1% when including land-use change. The study’s authors note this outcome is not static and that alt proteins could have a greater impact in the future as they improve and if consumer preferences evolve. Ultimately, we believe there still needs to be more research, given the little real-world data on how consumers substitute alt proteins for conventional meat within the US and abroad.
4. Alt protein-related legislation will continue to pass under a more conservative US government.49 (medium certainty)
Our impression is that alt proteins receive more political support from the left than the right. Despite this, we are cautiously optimistic that alt-protein-related federal legislation will continue to pass under a conservative US government. Our thinking is based on the fact that alt-protein-related bills have previously been introduced with bipartisan support, and the regulatory framework to approve cultivated meat for sale was developed under a Republican presidential administration.50 Indeed, in December 2022, a bipartisan group of lawmakers reached an agreement to appropriate $5.5 million for USDA alt protein research.51 GFI is explicitly focused on building bipartisan support; for example, GFI’s principal policy factsheet for legislators includes a pull quote from former Georgia governor and Trump agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue.52 Additionally, GFI engages with state-level and executive-branch policymakers (e.g., at the Departments of Agriculture & Energy and the National Science Foundation), which offer other avenues for getting alt protein policies passed and research funded.
Although meat consumption is connected to the culture wars in the US, and we believe political support for alt proteins could become more polarized in the future, we note there are also opportunities for shoring up more bipartisan support for alt proteins.53 For example, a joint report between GFI and the Breakthrough Institute describes policy support for alt protein R&D as an opportunity to “foster economic development and job growth in the face of growing international competition,” and GFI commissioned and worked closely with the Center for Strategic & International Studies on a report that calls for government funding for alt proteins, comparing the industry’s potential to biopharmaceuticals and advanced chips for artificial intelligence. We believe this framing could appeal to conservative policymakers.54 We also believe GFI's focus on consumer choices, innovation, and market-based approaches could be tractable under governments across the political spectrum. Since GFI is an international organization with affiliate offices in six other regions, we think it would continue to make progress in other countries regardless of whether the US policy environment is favorable to alt proteins.
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3 “In short, livestock production appears to contribute about 11%–17% of global greenhouse gas emissions” The Breakthrough Institute, 2023 ; total agricultural emissions: “Food production accounts for over a quarter (26%) of global greenhouse gas emissions.” Our World in Data, n.d. Calculation: 11/26 = 42% and 17/26 = 65%, hence 42-65% of agricultural emissions
4 On-farm energy use is a small amount of total food system emissions in Table 1 Tubiello et al., 2021 ; largest sources of food system emissions: Figure by Our World In Data, 2019 based on data from Poore and Nemecek, 2018
5 “demand for animal-based foods, coupled with the rapid urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and the income growth in low and mid-income countries, is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent.” FAO, 2023
6 Sources of livestock emissions: Sources of livestock emissions include land conversion to accommodate animal grazing and crop production, methane emissions from ruminants (e.g., cattle), and manure management. Importantly, cattle production is a major driver of deforestation, which releases stored carbon into the atmosphere. Carbon sequestration: “Here we quantify the total carbon opportunity cost of animal agricultural production to be 152.5 (94.2–207.1) gigatons of carbon (GtC) in living plant biomass across all continents and biomes. We approximated the potential for CO2 removal in soil and litter as an additional 63GtC” Hayek et al 2020 .
7 Although GFI focuses on improving the taste and price of alt proteins, we believe that funding R&D can also improve alt proteins’ nutritional value, and efforts that support the private sector can improve convenience.
8 "$21M+ in open-access research support, 118 grants awarded since 2019, 21 countries where GFI has funded research." The Good Food Institute, “Alternative protein research grants ” n.d.
9 “Dr. Amy Rowat is one of several GFI grantees who secured follow-on government funding after initial grant support from GFI. Of those who received both, GFI’s $1.8 million in grant dollars led to $16.9 million in government support, a nine-fold multiplying effect.” The Good Food Institute, “2022 Mid-Year Impact Report"
10 “81 Chapters” GFI, n.d.
11 GFI engages in some lobbying, but it is not a substantial portion of activities and is therefore permissible under its tax designation.
12 GFI’s advocacy for an interagency group: Giving Green correspondence with the Good Food Institute, 2022-07-09. Development of interagency group: “Accordingly, the Committee directs OSTP to establish an interagency group under the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to provide recommendations on coordination and support of alternative protein research and development throughout the Federal Government.” US Government Publishing Office, “House Report 117-395" 2022.
13 “GFI’s SciTech team played a key role in CASA-Bio synthesis meetings, collaborating with federal R&D agencies to identify mutual interests for a U.S. bioeconomy roadmap. CASA-Bio is a National Science Foundation-led initiative advancing the U.S. bioeconomy through collaborative research and development across federal and non-federal Organizations.[...] GFI will work with CASA-Bio to orchestrate workshops to draft five-year R&D roadmaps for several areas” GFI, 2024
14 “In 2024, a $90 million investment from the Earth Fund enabled three of those centers to successfully launch, with $30 million each for the new Bezos Centers of Sustainable Protein at North Carolina State University, Imperial College London, and National University Singapore.” Bezos Earth Fund, 2024
15 “Altogether, GFI estimates that newly announced global public funding for alternative proteins amounted to $523 million in 2023” GFI, 2024
16 “The selection criteria for the list of 14, determined by the council, evaluated factors such as Israel’s comparative advantages in certain sectors, its strategic needs as a developed country, its strength in R&D and position as a global innovation hub, and whether the specific sector needs government support and has a scientific component. The Ministry of Innovation, Science, and Technology will promote national programs in the prioritized areas and distribute some NIS 180 million ($52.4 million) a year in research grants with significant emphasis on these fields.” https://www.timesofisrael.com/food-energy-space-tech-in-top-5-of-israels-new-national-rd-priorities/
17 “On Saturday, India announced a biotechnology policy focused on the economy and climate, with smart proteins and functional foods – as well as climate-resilient agriculture – among six pillars of the strategy.” Green Queen, 2024 ; “GFI India is an integral part of the Science Ministry's sectorial committee on smart proteins whose meetings and proposals led to this outcome.” GFI, 2024
18 Illinois funding: “The sum of $5,000,000 … to the University of Illinois for costs associated with the expansion of the Integrated Bioprocessing Research Laboratory’s and other related infrastructure improvements.” Illinois General Assembly, 2024
19 California funding for alt proteins: “Of the funds appropriated in this item, $5,000,000 shall be available on a one-time basis for the Berkeley, Los Angeles, and Davis campuses to support research and development of plant-based and cultivated meats.” University of California, Los Angeles, 2022 . Appropriations: “Following months of GFI engagement and just days before the end of the 117th Congress in December, a bipartisan group of lawmakers reached an appropriations agreement that includes $5.5 million for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to conduct alternative protein research. Building on past appropriations, this publicly funded research will help fill knowledge gaps, optimize input crops, and improve production processes.” GFI, 2022 .
20 "Deputy Under Secretary, Research, Education, and Economics (REE), Nov 2022 - Present... The Good Food Institute, Chief of Staff Jun 2019 - May 2021," LinkedIn profile of Sanah Baig n.d.
21 European Union: “The Good Food Institute Europe, a nonprofit working to accelerate plant-based and cultivated proteins, called on national leaders on the Council of the EU to “clear up this mess” and reject restrictions on plant-based dairy products.” GFI Europe, 2020 . 2020. US: “Representing Tofurky, The Good Food Institute, the ACLU of Arkansas, and the Animal Legal Defense Fund challenged Arkansas’s label censorship law, asserting that the statute violates the First Amendment.” GFI, n.d.
22 Louisiana: “The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled a Louisiana state law prohibiting meat terminology on food not derived from animal carcasses can be enforced, but it only applies to companies that are intentionally trying to deceive consumers. Lead plaintiff Tofurky and its co-plaintiffs the Animal Legal Defense Fund and the Good Food Institute said Thursday the ruling is a win for their side because it narrows the law to companies that are overtly seeking to mislead consumers. In an email, Louisiana Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry Mike Strain said his office is pleased with the decision.” Food Dive, 2023 . Arkansas: “The Arkansas state law prohibiting plant-based meat companies from using meat terminology on their product labels and marketing is unconstitutional, a federal judge ruled late last month. The state cannot enforce the law, which has been on the books since 2019, and had been on pause while courts considered this lawsuit from Tofurky, the Good Food Institute, the Animal Legal Defense Fund and the American Civil Liberties Union.” Food Dive, 2023 .
23 “USDA and FDA held a joint public meeting on to advance the conversation around clean meat regulation. GFI advocated firmly for a fair regulatory path to market under the existing regulatory structures. Our friends at JUST, Finless Foods, BlueNalu, UPSIDE Foods, and many others joined the conversation as well.” GFI, 2018, plus further correspondence.
24 Consumer confidence: “If people don’t believe that cell-based meat products are safe, regulated, and healthy, then they’ll stick with slaughtered meat… That’s how the cell-based meat industry ended up actively working to convince the US government to step in and exercise its regulatory authority — and that’s why they were encouraged by the government’s announcement.” Vox, 2019 . Override state standards: “The USDA’s labelling authority overrides that of the states — states are not allowed to impose labelling requirements incompatible with the standards that the USDA puts forward.” Vox, 2019 .
25 “Alongside our advocacy for public investment in alternative protein research, GFI has been working toward regulatory approval for cultivated meat since our founding. In a defining moment for the future of our food system, in November of 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially gave the green light to a cultivated meat product for the very first time. UPSIDE Foods completed FDA’s rigorous review for its cultivated chicken as part of the agency’s pre-market review process, laying the groundwork for cultivated products to be sold in the United States. GFI was featured in media coverage of this historic milestone in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, TIME, The Washington Post, NPR, and more.” GFI, 2022 .
26 “In 2023, our cultivated meat and fermentation-derived frameworks were officially published by the Brazilian government, signaling an important step toward adoption and implementation.” GFI, 2024
27 JBS’ support for cultivated meat: “The deal signals the company’s entry into the cultivated protein market, which consists of producing food from animal cells and includes investment in building a new production plant in Spain to scale up production. Along with the acquisition, JBS is also announcing the setting up of Brazil’s first cultivated protein research & development (R&D) center. In all, JBS will channel US$ 100 million to the two projects.” JBS, 2021 . GFI’s support: “JBS' entry into the cultivated protein market had the strategic support of The Good Food Institute, an entity that promotes plant and cell-based alternatives to animal products.” JBS, 2021
28 “The Fatwa Committee of the Islamic Religious Council of Singapore (MUIS) announced last week that after conducting extensive deliberations for a year, they have determined that cultivated meat consumption can be considered halal “under specific conditions.” Vegconomist, 2024
29 “This critical decision came after more than a year of deliberations by the Islamic council, during which GFI APAC scientists and policy experts provided numerous technical presentations about the process of cultivating meat from animal cells.” GFI, 2024
30 “MUIS, the only authorized entity in Singapore to issue halal certificates, announced its ruling at an invite-only Fatwa Conference that featured, among other experts, Ph.D. Maanasa Ravikumar, a cultivated meat scientist at the Good Food Institute APAC.”Vegconomist, 2024
31 We describe our certainty as low/medium/high to increase readability and avoid false precision. Since these terms can be interpreted differently, we use rough heuristics to define them as percentage likelihoods the assumption is, on average, correct. Low = 0-70%, medium = 70-90%, high = 90-100%.
32 “Animal products—including animal emissions, feed, changes in land use and energy-intensive global supply chains—account for almost 60 percent of food-related emissions (including methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide), for a total of 14.5–20 percent of global emissions… novel ASF [animal source food] alternatives already show strong potential for reduced environmental impacts compared to many conventional animal products.” “life cycle assessment (LCAs) suggest that, compared to conventional beef, they could use 30–50 per cent less energy whilst offering reductions of 86–97 per cent in land use and 67–89 per cent in GHG emissions.” UNEP, 2023
33 “Even the lowest-emitting beef from dedicated beef herds (34 kg carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2e) and lower-emitting beef from dairy cow herds (15 kg CO2e) came in far above the highest-emitting tofu (4 kg CO2e) and plant-based meat (7 kg). Chicken and pork production emit far less CO2 equivalent than beef. And while there is some overlap (the lowest-emitting chicken [3.2 kg CO2e] and pork [6 kg CO2e] rival the emissions of the highest-emitting plant-based meat), the average emissions of tofu and plant-based meats are still lower than the average emissions of both chicken and pork.” Vox, 2021.
34 Figure: Vox, 2021 . Data: Poore and Nemecek 2018 and Santo et al 2020 .
35 Energy intensity: “Culturing meat in a lab is an energy-intensive process compared with conventional livestock production. While animals can naturally digest and absorb nutrients from grass and other foods, cultivated meat requires the production and processing of crops like corn and soy into amino acids and sugars.” The Breakthrough Institute, 2020 . Comparison of short-lived methane to long-lived CO2: “Under continuous high global consumption, cultured meat results in less warming than cattle initially, but this gap narrows in the long term and in some cases cattle production causes far less warming, as CH4 emissions do not accumulate, unlike CO2.” Lynch and Pierrehumbert 2019. We note that GFI has responded to this study: GFI, 2019 .
36 Figure: ‘Why have you not tried plant-based meat products again?’ GFI, 2024 ; Figure: ‘Barriers to alt-meat adoption’, Sorrells, 2022 . “Among Plant-Based Decreasers that were asked what would make them more likely to consume plant-based, 64% say lower pricing and/or more frequent sales and coupons, and 58% say better taste and/or texture.” Figure 6: ‘Reasons why shoppers are decreasing animal-based food consumption in favor of plant-based foods” Plant-based Foods Institute, 2022 ; “Of these factors, studies from different countries have consistently identified taste, price, healthiness, and convenience as dominating food choices [...] While some differences have been found in how people prioritise these factors, taste is typically ranked as most important, with the other factors varying in their relative subsequent positions” Dana et al, 2021 .; Figure 2 Valli et al., 2022
37 Market growth: “Currently, the market base for alternative protein is approximately $2.2 billion” McKinsey & Company, 2019 ; “The global alternative protein market size was USD 15.38 billion in 2023” Precedence Research, 2024 ; Taste and price improvements: “In order to became competitive, the product price should be decreased. In the past few years, several plant-based meat substitute producers have been able to lower their prices and move closer to price parity” Szenderák, Fróna, and Rákos, 2022 ; “consumers who buy PBA meat believe its taste has improved dramatically in recent years (73%) and that it is more environmentally sustainable (65%).” Deloitte, 2024
38 “The global alternative protein market size was USD 15.38 billion in 2023, calculated at USD 16.65 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 36.37 billion by 2034” Precedence Research, 2024
39 “Plant-based meat dollar sales decreased 1% and unit sales declined 8%.” The Good Food Institute, "2022 Plant-Based State of the Industry Report" 2022.
40 “Lidl freut sich über eine positive Resonanz der Kunden, die mit einem Anstieg der verkauften veganen Artikel um über 30 Prozent seit der Preisanpassung vor einem halben Jahr einhergeht.” Translation: Lidl is pleased with the positive response from customers, which has been accompanied by an increase in the number of vegan items sold by over 30 percent since the price adjustment six months ago. Lidl, 2024
41 “The average German ate 52 kilograms of meat last year, down around 4.2 kilograms from 2021 levels and the lowest since the government started tracking meat consumption in 1989.” Just Food, 2023 ;“People in the UK consumed less meat last year than at any point since records began in the 1970s, in a trend driven by the cost of living crisis, the continued impact of Covid and broader lifestyle changes.” The Guardian, 2023 ; "Furthermore, concerns over the environment and climate change will result in consumers paying further attention to the production process and products’ origin. Consumers habits will also be driven by health considerations as well as convenience. Overall, EU meat per capita consumption is expected to drop from 69.8kg in 2018 to 67kg by 2031." European Commission, 2021
42 Rethink Priorities report: Rethink Priorities, "Price-, taste-, and convenience-competitive plant-based meat would not currently replace meat" 2023.
43 “Concern that plant-based meat is ‘ultra-processed’ is widespread” Chapman, 2023 ; “How lab-grown meat became part of America’s culture wars” The Economist, 2024 ; “Thus, from various perspectives, meat is symbolic of status.” Chan and Zlatevska, 2019
44 “In countries with high meat consumption, altering social norms is also important” and “The food industry should make sure that plant-based meat alternatives are of similar nutritional value to meat; otherwise, there might be a backlash against highly processed plant-based meat alternatives due to their lack of healthiness” Siegrist and Hartmann, 2023 ; “Furthermore, incomplete safety assessments and a lack of clear regulatory guidelines confuse the food industry and hamper progress.” Malila et al., 2024 “In general, the following drivers of acceptance consistently show to be relevant for the acceptance of various alternative proteins: motives of taste and health, familiarity, attitudes, food neophobia, disgust, and social norms.” Onwezen et al., 2021
45 Sections: ‘Motivations’, ‘Adoption’, ‘Perceptions’ GFI, n.d.
46 “There is insufficient empirical evidence to more precisely estimate or optimize the current (or future) impacts of plant-based meat. To rectify this, consider funding: Research measuring the effects of plant-based meat sales on displacement of animal-based meat. Research comparing the effects of plant-based meats with other interventions to reduce animal-based meat usage. Informed (non-blinded) taste tests to benchmark current plant-based meats and enable measurements of taste improvement over time.” Rethink Priorities, "Price-, taste-, and convenience-competitive plant-based meat would not currently replace meat" 2023.
47 Our World in Data, “Global meat consumption, World, 1961 to 2050" n.d.
48 “For every 10% reduction in price or increase in demand for PBM, we estimate U.S. cattle production falls approximately 0.15%... For every 10% reduction in the price of PBM alternatives, we estimate that the global reduction in emissions is equivalent to 0.34% of U.S. emissions from beef production and 1.14% when including reduced land-use change emissions.” Lusk et al 2022.
49 We focus on the US because we are less familiar with the politics of alt proteins in the other countries that GFI works in.
50 “...on April 30, 2021, Representative Dan Wolgamott (DFL-St. Cloud) and Senator Carrie Ruud (R-Breezy Point) introduced legislation (SF 2483 and HF 2583) that, if enacted into law, will invest in research and development to advance the plant-based food industry in Minnesota.” GFI, 2021 ; regulatory framework: “In 2019, FSIS and FDA established a formal agreement on how we would use our regulatory tools to help ensure that foods comprising or containing cultured animal cells entering the U.S. market are safe and properly labeled.” USDA, n.d.
51 “Following months of GFI engagement and just days before the end of the 117th Congress in December, a bipartisan group of lawmakers reached an appropriations agreement that includes $5.5 million for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to conduct alternative protein research.” GFI, 2022 .
52 GFI, 2022 .
53 “Increasingly, America’s meat-eating ways are being subsumed into our culture wars. It’s yet another sign of how polarized our country is and how hard this polarization makes tackling a catastrophic threat like climate change.” Vox, 2021 .
54 “An expansive and ambitious policy platform that can nurture a domestic alternative protein industry will foster economic development and job growth in the face of international competition while aligning with the longer-term aim of promoting climate-smart agricultural production.” The Breakthrough Institute, 2022 .
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