Carbon Removal Climate models indicate that in order to limit warming to 2°C, emissions reductions alone may not suffice; reaching net-zero in the necessary timeframe will likely require gigaton-scale deployment of carbon removal by midcentury.6 Carbon removal will be especially useful in balancing emissions from hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, and industry.7 In addition, it is our impression that removing more carbon than we emit via net-negative goals may be an important strategy to curb future climate damage. This is a view shared by some members of the private sector, government, and scientific community, and would only be made possible through the development and deployment of carbon removal.8,9,10
Carbon removal as a sector is quite varied both in terms of the types of pathways as well as the technological readiness of each pathway. In addition, not much carbon removal is available, and that which is available is too expensive to create broad demand.11 In fact, we have only reached about 0.0062% of a projected 10 gigaton by 2050 deployment goal, and only ~4.3% of the carbon removal purchases ever made have been delivered.12 Much of the carbon removal sector remains in the R&D phase, and projects that have higher technological maturity are still navigating economic viability and the logistics for deployment at scale. In short, the current market is young, small, and relatively uncertain; it does not yet reflect the size or certain longevity required to ensure gigaton-scale removal – a benchmark for what is needed for substantial climate change mitigation.13
Commercialization trajectory The first AMC, launched in 2009, was used in the development and distribution of the pneumococcal vaccine (PCV). It has been credited with substantially accelerating availability and, consequently, saving lives.14 Subsequently, different models of AMCs have been proposed and implemented in various contexts. One salient feature of AMCs is that they appear preferable when “there is a diversity of products with different characteristics that might be appropriate to support and it is unclear which might be superior.”15 This is especially relevant given the complexity of the carbon removal portfolio. Based on factors such as urgency, efficacy, and relevance, we see Frontier’s AMC model as potentially playing a valuable role in the growth of a robust and durable carbon removal market.
The innovation trajectory of renewable energy can serve as a helpful analog to carbon removal development and deployment. The success of solar PV, in particular, was due to a combination of important interventions. These interventions included continued R&D, procurement, and the creation of certainty for future markets – all three of which are present in the Frontier theory of change.16
Monitoring, reporting, and verification In addition, a significant challenge for carbon removal is the lack of standards for monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV).17 To this end, Frontier has collaborated with CarbonPlan to create a framework for quantifying and mapping uncertainties in the context of carbon removal pathways represented in Frontier’s portfolio. Not only will this allow for better facilitation between buyers and sellers within the context of Frontier, but it will also serve as a model for the larger carbon removal market.
Our take on Frontier’s theory of change Figure 3 represents our take on Frontier's theory of change:
Figure 3: Frontier Theory of Change
We have high certainty
We have medium certainty 18 Not only is there uncertainty as to whether the companies will succeed as business entities, but there is also uncertainty as to whether certain technologies will work and effectively scale.
Given the complexity of parameters that will determine the trajectory of carbon removal at large, we are uncertain as to when and if the carbon removal market will develop to the size and scale required to meet global climate goals. Consequently, we have low certainty
6 “All available studies require at least some kind of carbon dioxide removal to reach net zero; that is, there are no studies where absolute zero GHG or even CO2 emissions are reached by deep emissions reductions alone.” IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Chapter 3
7 “These difficult-to-decarbonize energy services include aviation…production of carbon-intensive structural materials such as steel and cement…To the extent that carbon remains involved in these services in the future, net-zero emissions will also entail active management of carbon.” Davis et al. 2018.
8 Private sector: “While the world will need to reach net zero, those of us who can afford to move faster and go further should do so.“ https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/01/16/microsoft-will-be-carbon-negative-by-2030/
9 Government: “I believe that it’s important for all the developed countries to talk about, not net zero, but about removing more carbon from the atmosphere than they are adding — net negative is what they need to talk about.” Minister Singh, IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit
10 Scientific community: “The world will be net negative once removal exceeds emissions. If it takes us more than a decade or two to lower the level of CO2 , we definitely will have overshot our targets and will need to maintain net negative emissions for decades into the future. Therefore, time is of the essence.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/feliciajackson/2021/08/30/net-zero-is-no-longer-enough--its-time-for-net-negative-policy-coherence-and-robust-esg/?sh=73c495c06a34
11 “There is an extremely limited supply of reliable, permanent carbon removal available, and what exists is extremely expensive.” Stanford Social Innovation Review. Racing to Net-Zero: A Captivating but Distant Ambition (2022)
12 As of August 30, 2022, see cdr.fyi for live updates.
13 “The market for durable carbon removal does not exist. Yet. What we have is a heterogenous space consisting of hundreds of companies with ideas on how to remove carbon.“ https://roberthoglund.medium.com/the-carbon-removal-market-doesnt-exist-3e28b9ed14cc
14 "Three vaccines have been developed and more than 150 million children immunized, saving an estimated 700,000 lives.” Kremer et al 2020
15 “there is a diversity of products with different characteristics that might be appropriate to support and it is unclear which might be superior.” Vivid Economics. Advance Market Commitments for low-carbon development: an economic assessment (2010)
16 “There is nothing inevitable about the rapid development and wide- spread adoption of low-carbon technologies. Rather, intentional policy and pur- posive investment will be needed and sustained over many years.” Nemet, G. F. (2019). How solar energy became cheap: A model for low-carbon innovation. Routledge
17 "... a more systematic approach to CDR MRV will be needed in the years ahead to track the performance of different CDR approaches and maintain high-quality standards as the market grows.” https://carbonplan.org/research/cdr-verification-explained
18 See Table 7. Survival of private sector establishments by opening year. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/bdm/us_age_naics_00_table7.txt
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