Mitigation Research

Derisking Clean Electricity Investments in LMICs: Strategy Report

Summary

  • Why is derisking clean electricity in LMICs important? 

Derisking refers to lowering the barriers—financial, regulatory, and structural—that hinder investment in clean electricity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). LMIC electricity generation, excluding China, emitted roughly 4.1 billion tons of CO2 in 2025, or about 29% of global power sector emissions. Under current policies, LMIC generation is projected to double by 2050 due to growing populations, expanding electricity access, and further industrialization. 

We estimate the mitigation potential of LMIC electricity grids, which is the difference in emissions between a business-as-usual and mitigation scenario, will be approximately 6.4 billion tons of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) in 2050, or 10% of global emissions. LMICs are on track to become a larger share of the world’s electricity emissions, meaning choices taken now will influence how future demand is met and the trajectory of future emissions. 

  • How could efforts to derisk clean electricity in LMICs reduce greenhouse gases?

Most LMICs are expected to experience significant growth in energy demand. Clean electricity projects, especially when designed to produce baseload power, can be more capital-intensive than fossil fuel projects, which makes access to finance a critical lever for decarbonization. As it stands, high investor-perceived risk and grid infrastructure constraints hold back the development of clean electricity resources in many LMIC markets. If LMICs lowered risks in their electricity markets, clean electricity resources could meet a greater portion of new energy demand—avoiding the buildout of new fossil fuel generators, and even replacing existing ones.

  • What do our findings suggest are the most promising philanthropic sub-strategies for reducing electricity emissions? 

Based on our evaluation of scale, feasibility, and funding need, we think the most promising philanthropic sub-strategies to derisk clean electricity in LMICs are:

  1. Developing and aggregating knowledge to improve regional capacity
  2. Creating strong aggregated project pipelines
  3. Improving utility operations
  4. Implementing grid planning and reliability best practices 

All four sub-strategies will support the development of stronger and more resilient electricity markets and regulatory environments that are necessary to lower investment risk and attract more financing toward clean electricity in LMICs.

  • Is there room for more funding? 

After reviewing financial records of 24 foundations active in this space, we estimate that efforts to derisk clean electricity in LMICs receive $39 million USD in philanthropic funding per year, equivalent to 4% of all foundation funding for climate change mitigation in LMICs.

Total climate investment from the private and public sectors for clean electricity in LMICs totals roughly $380 billion per year, 29% of the estimated $1.3 trillion per year needed by 2035.

Based on this funding data, we think efforts to derisk clean electricity in LMICs are severely underfunded.

  • Are there major co-benefits or potential risks? 

Derisking clean electricity investments in LMICs includes co-benefits such as expanded electricity access, improved electricity reliability, higher economic productivity, and greater short-term energy security. At the same time, this strategy could raise electricity prices for consumers who can least afford them, and displace jobs and public revenue in countries with large fossil fuel industries. We think careful planning and implementation can mitigate these risks.

  • What are the key uncertainties and open questions? 

Our key uncertainties include how much LMIC electricity demand and emissions will grow by 2050, the extent to which the sub-strategies we prioritize will lower risk for fossil fuel investment alongside clean electricity, and which regions and countries offer the most effective entry points for each sub-strategy. We are also uncertain how growing investment from countries such as China, and energy security concerns following recent geopolitical conflicts, will influence LMIC decisions to adopt clean electricity generators.

  • What is the bottom line, and what are the next steps? 

Electricity demand in LMICs is expected to grow substantially in the coming decades, and high levels of risk are preventing finance from reaching clean electricity projects. We think philanthropy is well positioned to address the barriers that drive that risk, and that the sub-strategies we prioritize are underfunded relative to the size of the problem.

Given the projected growth in LMIC electricity emissions, the low level of philanthropic funding these sub-strategies receive, and the declining support from high-income country governments, we think it is important to direct more philanthropic funding toward derisking clean electricity investments in LMICs.

We recommend that philanthropists consider funding organizations that are working to address the challenges outlined in this report and consider grants aligned with the strategies we have laid out.

The findings in this report will inform the grantmaking strategy for the Giving Green Fund and our list of Top Climate Nonprofits. Therefore, donors interested in progressing this work can choose to donate directly to the Giving Green Fund.

Giving Green has conducted the following cost-effectiveness analysis related to this strategy: cost-effectiveness analysis of open-source grid planning models in LMICs.

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